What is safety in 2022? Safety enough to go to the local supermarket….or a local July 4th parade in a suburb with not a single murder from 2000 to 2020? See, “Highland Park Was Meant to be Chicago’s ‘Mayberry,’” by Ellen Almer Durston, Campbell Robertson and Dan Simmons, New York Times, July 6, 2022.
This question woke me in the middle of the night, July 5, 2022, and anxiety increased after reading the article above the next morning. Having gone through active shooter training myself, I know to be alert, look for exits and places to hide in all public places I may go. That does not help me with the anxiety after the July 4th parade attack. See Post, “Active Shooter Training and How to Talk to Grandchildren About Terrorism Are Things We Grandmas All Must Know.” This Grandma, a former judge for almost twenty years, decided to try to determine what day(s) of the week and what time(s) I can leave my house to most likely avoid a mass shooting in 2022.
In my initial Google search of these words, I found most articles contained biases—arguing for or against gun laws or limiting access to gun buying or ownership or not. Because I was looking for specific information, I mostly ignored those arguments, concentrating on the “who, what, where, why and when” type questions, mostly on “when.”
What I found fascinating, but should not have been based on our polarized American society, is that there is no agreement on the definition of a mass shooting or even how many mass shootings have occurred in our country, even in 2022, the most current data. Therefore, I skipped over the different definitions to again concentrate on trying to determine what day(s) of the week and what time(s) I can leave my house to most likely avoid a mass shooting in 2022.
The research site upon which I relied most of those I searched on GOOGLE was Gun
Violence Archive (GNV) gunviolencearchive.org.
Those lawyers and forensic experts who have appeared before me when I served as a judge would immediately know why. It clearly sets forth the basis of the information, is made of charts, maps, diagrams, and outlines, easy to identify and follow the information. Of course, the last column title, “congressional reports,” was the last on which I clicked and it allowed you to go right to your state for certain information! As I am in Florida, stats for Florida were important to me, so you can go right to your state for those, and most important, for whichever side you are on, links and information on all representatives to contact to fight for or against gun laws or limiting access to gun buying or ownership or not.
Since much of what I needed to answer my own questions comes from this source, here is the relevant information about methodology that GNV claims on their website which you can check on their “About Us” link. They do have opponents to their methodology if you research reviews on GOOGLE. What is their definition of mass shooting that I relied upon on their website appears under the link “Explainer.”
Here is what I discovered for my concerns:
DAYS OF THE WEEK I CAN LEAVE MY HOUSE TO MOST LIKELY AVOID A MASS SHOOTING ARE MONDAYS AND THURSDAYS, BUT NOT ON HOLIDAYS ON THOSE DAYS
I went to the reports by date, cross referenced day of the week, for 2022. I counted the number of incidents for each day of the week, added them up, and double checked with a calculator. (Go to “reports” link , then “mass shootings all years,” and you will have most recent 2022 mass shootings and backwards through the year.). Other than two periods, one February 6-11, 2022,and March 26 to April 1, 2022 except for a day here and there, there no periods of breaks in mass shootings so far in 2022. I cannot figure out why these two periods and if it means anything at all.
Here is the breakdown of mass shootings on each day of the week from January 1 to July 5, 2022.
There were eleven mass shootings on July 4, a Monday, including in Highland Park, Illinois, which brought on my current anxiety. For other holidays thus far in 2022, included in the totals, Martin Luther King Day, January 17, a Monday was one; Washington’s Birthday, February 21, a Monday, was one; Memorial Day, May 30, a Monday was three; and Juneteenth, June 19, a Sunday, was five.
Monday: 32 total minus 11 on the holiday of July 4 and minus 5 on other holidays = 16 otherwise, so avoid Monday holidays
Tuesday: 26
Wednesday: 28
Thursday: 19
Friday: 35
Saturday: 86
Sunday: 95 minus 5 on the holiday, is 90 avoiding the holiday
TIMES I CAN LEAVE MY HOUSE TO MOST LIKELY AVOID A MASS SHOOTING ARE BEFORE 8 AM AND AFTER 4 PM
The second website upon which I most relied of all I researched is ALLERT.org, a research and training organization associated with the University of Texas. In their “About” link you can learn about them and their mission. Again, I liked their presentation in charts and easy to understand information. The FBI teams up with them. See, link,
Under Allert Active Shooter Data , I discovered
“Number of Events by time of Day: This graph presents the times of day that active shooting events took place. The majority of active shootings took place between 8:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. Although, as the graph shows, active shootings have occurred at all times of day.”
WHERE SHOULD I BE CONCERNED
“Business locations experienced the most active shooting events, with 98 events. Schools had the second highest amount of active shootings, with 44 events. There were 32 active shootings that took place in a public venue environment. There were 8 active shootings that occurred in churches and 7 that occurred within medical facilities during this time period. Military bases experienced 3 active shootings.”
Under my concern about “Where,” I checked Florida in the first website quoted and found that there were 14 mass shootings in Florida so far in 2022.
MY ANSWER THAT DOES NOT ALLEVIATE MY ANXIETY BUT GIVES ME THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION FROM DATA FROM 2022 SO FAR:
THE DAYS OF THE WEEK I CAN LEAVE MY HOUSE TO MOST LIKELY AVOID A MASS SHOOTING ARE MONDAYS AND THURSDAYS THAT ARE NOT HOLIDAYS AND NOT BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 8 AM AND 4 PM.
AVOID SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PUBLIC OUTINGS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
BE ALERT EVERYWHERE AND FOLLOW THE ACTIVE SHOOTER TRAINING ADVICE, ESPECIALLY TO NOTE EXITS AND PLACES TO HIDE.
The only political statement I will make:
Welcome to the United States of America in 2022.
With little joy,
Mema
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