A friend recently lamented that her late thirty something child had not yet met a permanent mate. She worries, “Will I ever be a grandma?”
A new Pew Research studies is relevant. See Pew Research Center.
First, this friend should be happy that her child is college educated, because Richard Fry writes, “New census data show more Americans are tying the knot, but mostly it’s the college-educated.”
Marriage is back – at least, a little bit, and with some caveats. Recently released Census data indicate that the number of new marriages in the U.S. went up in 2012, reversing a three-year decline. Since marriage is tied to economic mobility, some economists may interpret this development as a small sign that shows the U.S. economy is improving. But a closer look at the data shows some reason for caution.
The new data show that 4.32 million adults (ages 18 or older) were newlywed in 2012, a 3% percent increase over the 4.21 million adults newly married in 2011. (The data do not include same-sex couples.)
. . . . almost the entire increase in new marriages (87%) from 2011 to 2012 is accounted for by the college-educated.
By age, the uptick in new marriages is concentrated among adults ages 35 and older.
Not only are college educated getting married in greater numbers, the new marriages among the college educated adults “is concentrated among adults ages 35 and older! “
Good news for this Grandma’s friend! Not such good news for those who have children who are less-educated:
. . . .In contrast, the new marriage rate among adults with some college education and adults with a high school diploma fell further from 2011 to 2012. . . .
How does the one year change in the number of newlyweds fit into the larger context of marriage trends in America? The new marriage data provide insights on entry into marriage and not the stability of marriage. The long-run trends on entry into marriage clearly show that less-educated adults have become less likely to ever get married. Consider marital outcomes among 35- to 39-year-olds. In 2012, 73% of 35- to 39-year-olds without a bachelor’s degree had ever married. By contrast, 92% of this group had ever married in 1950. . . .So the recent slide in new marriages among less-educated adults is part of a long-run decline in entry into marriage among these adults.
Marriage is more attractive to college-educated, but less people are married:
It is one thing to get married, it is another thing to stay married. In spite of the recent uptick in newlyweds since 2011, it is still the case that fewer adults were currently married in 2012 (50.5%) than in 2011 (50.8%). The share of adults presently married peaked around 72% in 1960.
Another new Pew study also addresses college vs. non college. See, “The Rising Cost of Not Going to College,” at Pew Research Center.
This study tells us we must encourage our grandchildren to go to college if we want great-grandchildren! More donations to the 529 plans!
Joy,
Mema
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